The word "bet" is a metaphor used in [[Product Strategy]]. Marty Cagan says that a bet is "an outcome you are a seeking (a problem to be solved)." According to John Cutler: > A bet is a logical container of investment (time, attention, focus, energy, and funds) designed to have some sort of impact. Tommy Geoco talks about "staging bets." This is about framing the question, "How important is this UI decision?", in the context of how it supports the company's strategy to win the market. It may come about that I'll need to debate the quality of those past decisions—either with myself or with my team. If I'm unable to resolve those debates in a timely manner, or feel poorly about the outcome, I can stage bets—again, contextualizing the decision in how it supports my company's strategy. This requires, of course, that I know something of my company's strategy. As Kate Aronowitz, design partner at Google Ventures, says—"Know the industry that you are in. Know what your competitors are doing." Geoco suggests a few steps to properly stage our bets: 1. Analyze the industry 2. Analyze the competitors 3. Define customer goals 4. Name my bets > ![[GeocoTommy_StagingBets.png]] Geoco notes four categories of macro bets that a company can focus on: | Macro Bets | Description | | -------------- | ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ | | **Velocity** | We win by getting our features to market faster (e.g. reduce time-to-delivery, reuse existing components, find metaphors in other markets) | | **Efficiency** | We win by managing our waste better (e.g. creating design systems, reusing existing patterns, reducing work-in-progress) | | **Accuracy** | We win by being right more frequently (e.g. stronger research, measuring product performance with instrumentation, design sprints for discovery) | | **Innovation** | We win by discovering untapped market potential | ## Reference [[CutlerJohn_BetsSuccessMetricsRoadmapping.pdf|Cutler, John. "How to Think About Bets, Success Metrics, and Roadmapping (public PDF, accessed January 2024).]] > What is a Bet? A bet is a logical container of investment (time, attention, focus, energy, and funds) designed to have some sort of impact. Why is this a helpful framing? We use the word Bet because it acknowledges that many of the things we try will not work, but if we play the game correctly, we’ll learn from these failed experiments and bounce back stronger and smarter. It also reminds us that our “bankroll” (the amount of funds and energy we have) isn’t unlimited. We need to place our bets intelligently … Imagine you’re betting your own money! With a Project, the focus is on finishing a predetermined chunk of work. With a problem focus, our focus is on solving a specified problem. With a Bet, our focus is impact, value, and risk. [Cagan, Marty. "Transformed FAQ" (November 2023, SVPG blog).](https://www.svpg.com/transformed-faq/) > **“_Is a bet at one level, just a feature at another level?_“** > A bet is an outcome you are seeking (a problem to be solved), and a feature is output (a particular approach to a solution someone wants you to build). > > A bet is just one metaphor for expressing your product strategy, and your product strategy is what drives the areas your company wants to invest in. The key to empowerment is to be sure to give your product teams as much latitude in coming up with the most appropriate solution as possible. Geoco, Tommy. "Making Design Decisions (V1)", 58-79.